Nigeria Can’t Achieve 20th Largest Economy by 2020– financial analyst


A top Banker and financial analyst, Dr. Alaba Olusemore has said Nigeria will not be able to attain its vision 2020 expectation of becoming the 20th largest economy in the globe.

Speaking on the occasion of the 12th year Anniversary of Nigeria Banking Consolidation held at Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Lagos on Thursday, Olusemore who is the CEO of Nesbet Consulting Ltd, said however that Nigeria has derived a lot of positives from the banking consolidation, financial systems strategy 2020 and vision 2020.

He therefore urged the authorities and regulators to strengthen efforts as the year 2020 closes by and follow the above policies to logical conclusion.

In his own contribution, the National Co-ordinator Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria (ISAN) Mr. Adebisi Adeniyi who represented Sir Sunny Nwosu said Nigeria economically should be better off if the government at all levels sincerely support the private sector.

He said because of parochial tendencies on the part of public and private sector leaders most of the policies cannot but have fault lines.

According to him, if the Nigerian people are genuinely empowered that Nigeria will achieve its aims of being among the best economies in the world.

He pointed out that this can only be achieved with a renewed mind set among the leaders and the followers, maintaining that the people should be the centre of every developmental policies.

A lawyer and public affairs Analyst, Barrister Pat Anyadubalu in his summation pointed that in the issues of financial intermediation that laws bothering on ownership of landed properties needs to be ironed out as that seems to be the main collateral required by banks.

As Nesbet CEO sees it, “consolidation was a major policy initiative of the Central Bank of Nigeria, aimed at making Nigeria banks competitive globally through enhanced capital base.

“Consolidation produced 21 banks out of 89. Today there are 23 commercial banks; four merchant banks; one non-interest bank; several microfinance institutions, which replaced the community banks had been established. The primary mortgage sector has also been restructured to provide mortgage finance.

“All of these are now under the direct supervision of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation. Part of the CBN directives is that the PMB should concentrate on ‘true’ mortgage financing that will provide long term mortgage loans for residential purposes’.

While three foreign banks, i.e. Barclays Bank Plc, Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan have representative offices in Nigeria currently.

According to the background to the theme of the event given to the media the vision 2020 initiative was introduced by the President Olusegun Obasanjo Administration, framed and planned by the President Umar  Yar’Adua regime and largely executed, so far, by the President Goodluck Jonathan Government.

It posited that various government policies such as the NEEDS, SEEDS, banking consolidation etc by Obasanjo, the seven point agenda of Yar’Adua, the Industrial revolution plan, Agriculture transformation Agenda, re- basing of the economy of Jonathan period and the current recovery plan of President Muhammadu Buhari are all geared obviously to achieve the vision 2020 which aims to make Nigeria the 20th largest economy globally.

The Green shoots of the vision it posited was that by  2013 Nigeria became the largest economy in Africa, and later the 24th in the world. Its music Industry is rated among the top ten, its film industry is also in the top 5. Its ICT is among the top in Africa. Its banks are far in the run to become Africa’s financial hub. But other sectors of the financial industry- insurance, mortgage, venture capital etc are not doing so well. Apart from Dangote Industries and a few others the manufacturing sector is tame. In Export the oil & gas sector is huge. Agric is however rising.

However, the Posers before the country it stressed is that vision 2020 comes to the end in two years time or more depending on how you are counting. Has it been worth the while? Should we devise another vision? Vision 2030, 2040 or 2050? With the decision by some EU nations to phase out fuel and diesel cars within the next seven years(2025 to be precise).What should be the focus of the Nigerian  economy, going forward? As its oil export dwindles cause of competition from cheaper alternative energy sources.




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